论文标题

特朗普在2020年大选中会再次获胜吗?社会物理模型的答案

Will Trump win again in the 2020 election? An answer from a sociophysics model

论文作者

Galam, Serge

论文摘要

本文预测,特朗普胜利已在选举之前提交并在此之后进行了修订,从而添加了前言,并在修订中添加了注释,以详细讨论预测失败的原因。 2016年,特朗普在11月8日的选举中被一致被视为失败者。相比之下,我在社会物理学框架内使用了几十年来一直在开发的观点模型,我预测了他的胜利。根据该模型,2016年获胜的悖论狂欢节是特朗普通过激发他们真正的愤慨来激活许多选民中冻结偏见的能力。但是,四年后,特朗普令人震惊的郊游不再震惊,他们变得不感兴趣,失去了产生重大情感反应的能力。这是否意味着这次他将失去2020年对拜登的选举,因为几乎所有分析师,专家和评论员仍然预测?不,因为随着冻结的偏见仍然存在,自发的偏见将被激活,但这次他们将受益于拜登和特朗普。主要的是对另一个候选政策的恐惧和面临危险的个人立场。此外,特朗普总统将大部分美国选民两极分化为狭narrow的反特朗普和狭narrow的亲特朗普,我在模型中表示的那些人是僵化的人,将推动选择的动态。两种影响,偏见和僵化的竞争都可以竞争或合作,使其在每个州内的本地组合做出决定性的决定,以确定国家选举的信仰。结果,微小的差异可以带来结果。基于我对相关比例的不利地和偏见比例的粗略估计,该模型预测了特朗普在2020年11月大选中的胜利。

This paper predicting Trump victory has been submitted before the election and revised after, allowing to add a Foreword and Note Added in Revision to discuss in details the causes of the failure of the prediction. In 2016, Trump was unanimously seen as the loser in the November 8 election. In contrast, using a model of opinion dynamics I have been developing for a few decades within the framework of sociophysics, I predicted his victory against all odds. According to the model, the winning paradoxical martingale of 2016, has been Trump capability to activate frozen prejudices in many voters by provoking their real indignation. However, four year later, Trump shocking outings do not shock anymore, they became devitalized, losing their ability to generate major emotional reactions. Does this mean that this time around he will lose the 2020 election against Biden, as nearly all analysts, pundits and commentators still predict? No, because with frozen prejudices remaining frozen, the spontaneous prejudices will be activated but this time they will benefit to both Biden and Trump. The main ones are the fear of the other candidate policy and the personal stand facing a danger. In addition, Trump presidency having polarized a large part of American voters into narrow-minded anti-Trump and narrow-minded pro-Trump, those I denote in my model as inflexibles, will be driving the dynamics of choices. Both effects, prejudices and inflexibles can either compete or cooperate making their local combination within each state, decisive to determine the faith of the state election. As a result, tiny differences can make the outcome. Based on my rough estimates of associated proportions of inflexibles and prejudices, the model predicts Trump victory in the 2020 November election.

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