论文标题
什么时候放松社会距离措施？基于Arima的预测研究
When to Relax Social Distancing Measures? An ARIMA Based Forecasting Study
论文作者
论文摘要
新颖的冠状病毒在各个国家的传播广泛而迅速。确认病例的数量和繁殖数是科学研究中用于分析和预测病毒传播的流行病学参数。正率是测试人口范围的指标，有助于理解给定地理位置中感染的严重程度。在本研究中，已经考虑了所选国家的正率，以构建基于ARIMA的统计模型。模型的拟合优度通过研究残差，框 - 朗测试和预测误差值来验证。 Arima模型预测的正利率用于调查某些国家 /地区在社会疏远措施中实施放松的范围，以及在其他一些国家中进一步拧紧规则的必要性。
The spread of the novel coronavirus across various countries is wide and rapid. The number of confirmed cases and the reproduction number are some of the epidemiological parameters utilized in scientific studies for the analysis and prediction of the viral transmission. The positive rate, an indicator on the extent of testing the population, aids in understanding the severity of the infection in a given geographic location. The positive rate for selected countries has been considered in this study to construct ARIMA based statistical models. The goodness of fit of the models are verified by the investigation of residuals, Box-Luang test and the forecast error values. The positive rates forecasted by the ARIMA models are utilized to investigate the scope for implementation of relaxations in social distancing measures in some countries and the necessity to tighten the rules further in some other countries.
