论文标题
使用经常性神经网络预测资产价格
Asset Price Forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
本论文具有三个主要目的,首先是预测两个股票,即高盛(GS)和通用电气(GE)。为了预测股票价格,我们使用了长期的短期内存(LSTM)模型,在这些模型中,我们输入了与GS相当密切相关的另外两个股票的价格。其他模型(例如Arima)被用作基准。当将LSTM用于预测库存时,经验结果表现出实际挑战。主要动力之一是一个反复出现的滞后,我们称之为“预测滞后”。 第二个目的是对时间序列的任务进行更一般和客观的观点,以便可以应用其协助ANN的任意预测。因此,试图通过某些标准(由艾哈迈德·泰拉布(Ahmed Tealab)撰写的审查论文提出)来区分以前的作品,以总结其中包括有效信息。然后,汇总信息将统一并通过通用术语表示,该术语可以应用于时间序列预测任务的不同步骤。 本文的最后一个但并非最不重要的目的是详细说明ANN所基于的数学框架。我们将使用Anthony L. Caterini的“数学框架中的神经网络”中介绍的框架,其中引入了通用神经网络的结构,并根据其所描述的框架引入了梯度下降算法(包含反向流动)。最后,我们将此框架用于特定的体系结构,即我们集中精力并实现基于的经常性神经网络。该书证明其定理主要用于分类案例。取而代之的是,我们证明了回归案例的定理,这就是我们问题的情况。
This thesis serves three primary purposes, first of which is to forecast two stocks, i.e. Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE). In order to forecast stock prices, we used a long short-term memory (LSTM) model in which we inputted the prices of two other stocks that lie in rather close correlation with GS. Other models such as ARIMA were used as benchmark. Empirical results manifest the practical challenges when using LSTM for forecasting stocks. One of the main upheavals was a recurring lag which we called "forecasting lag". The second purpose is to develop a more general and objective perspective on the task of time series forecasting so that it could be applied to assist in an arbitrary that of forecasting by ANNs. Thus, attempts are made for distinguishing previous works by certain criteria (introduced by a review paper written by Ahmed Tealab) so as to summarise those including effective information. The summarised information is then unified and expressed through a common terminology that can be applied to different steps of a time series forecasting task. The last but not least purpose of this thesis is to elaborate on a mathematical framework on which ANNs are based. We are going to use the framework introduced in the book "Neural Networks in Mathematical Framework" by Anthony L. Caterini in which the structure of a generic neural network is introduced and the gradient descent algorithm (which incorporates backpropagation) is introduced in terms of their described framework. In the end, we use this framework for a specific architecture, which is recurrent neural networks on which we concentrated and our implementations are based. The book proves its theorems mostly for classification case. Instead, we proved theorems for regression case, which is the case of our problem.