论文标题
第二波的预示：对德国当前的共同死亡人数的分析
The foreshadow of a second wave: An analysis of current COVID-19 fatalities in Germany
论文作者
论文摘要
在数十个国家中，第二波SARS-COV-2浪潮正在展开。但是，第二波在新报告的病例中表现出强烈的表现，但与第一波相比，死亡人数更少。在过去的三个月中，在德国，报告的病例增加了五倍或更多，而死亡的数量几乎没有增长。这种差异引起了人们的猜测，即报告的病例的兴起不会反映第二波，而只会反映出更广泛的测试。我们发现，这种明显的差异可以通过受感染的年龄结构在很大程度上解释，并预测不久的将来死亡计数的明显增加，因为差异再次扩展到年龄较大的年龄组。为了重新建立控制，并避免超过TTI容量时的临界点，必须降低病例数。否则，在达到医院容量时，对差异和保护脆弱人士的控制将需要最新的限制性措施。
A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the reported cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas the death counts hardly grew. This discrepancy fueled speculations that the rise of reported cases would not reflect a second wave but only wider testing. We find that this apparent discrepancy can be explained to a large extent by the age structure of the infected, and predict a pronounced increase of death counts in the near future, as the spread once again expands into older age groups. To re-establish control, and to avoid the tipping point when TTI capacity is exceeded, case numbers have to be lowered. Otherwise the control of the spread and the protection of vulnerable people will require more restrictive measures latest when the hospital capacity is reached.
