论文标题
建模欧洲宗教与民族主义的威胁因果关系
Modelling Threat Causation for Religiosity and Nationalism in Europe
论文作者
论文摘要
欧洲的当代政治景观是由英国脱欧等地缘政治蓬勃发展造成的几十年来造成的,现在是Covid-19。政策制定者对当前大流行的反应方式可能会对大流行后的世界产生很大的影响。我们旨在调查Covid-19之后的复杂问题,围绕有关民族主义,宗教信仰和反移民情绪的关系和交叉点,从社会认知的角度采用混合方法(调查和建模),从社会认知的角度来看;在前所未有的传染威胁造成了巨大的不稳定的情况下。关于民粹主义和民族主义的学术文献,仍然存在很大的差距。特别是,缺乏关注不断发展的人类心理学在应对持续威胁中的作用,在文献中可能属于四个广泛的类别:捕食(通过以某种其他方式被食用或杀死人的生命威胁),传染性(威胁通过身体感染威胁生命),自然(通过自然疾病而威胁着一个人的生活,威胁着一个人的生活),并通过社交来摧毁一个人的生命,对人的生命进行了威胁(威胁),并遭受了一生的威胁。根据它们对宗教和其他形式的行为的影响,已经讨论了这些威胁,但并未被用来研究民族主义和民粹主义行为。在接下来的内容中,提出了两项研究,这些研究开始填补文献中的这一空白。第一个调查是用于告知我们的理论框架并探索在线样本中不同可能的关系的调查。第二个是对计算机模拟的研究。两项研究(于2020年完成)都发现相关变量之间的效果非常明显,使我们能够确定需要进一步解释和研究的趋势,因为我们朝着可以充分告知政策讨论的模型。
Europe's contemporary political landscape has been shaped by massive shifts in recent decades caused by geopolitical upheavals such as Brexit and now, COVID-19. The way in which policy makers respond to the current pandemic could have large effects on how the world looks after the pandemic subsides. We aim to investigate complex questions post COVID-19 around the relationships and intersections concerning nationalism, religiosity, and anti-immigrant sentiment from a socio-cognitive perspective by applying a mixed-method approach (survey and modelling); in a context where unprecedented contagion threats have caused huge instability. There are still significant gaps in the scholarly literature on populism and nationalism. In particular, there is a lack of attention to the role of evolved human psychology in responding to persistent threats, which can fall into four broad categories in the literature: predation (threats to one's life via being eaten or killed in some other way), contagion (threats to one's life via physical infection), natural (threats to one's life via natural disasters), and social (threats to one's life by destroying social standing). These threats have been discussed in light of their effects on religion and other forms of behaviour, but they have not been employed to study nationalist and populist behaviours. In what follows, two studies are presented that begin to fill this gap in the literature. The first is a survey used to inform our theoretical framework and explore the different possible relationships in an online sample. The second is a study of a computer simulation. Both studies (completed in 2020) found very clear effects among the relevant variables, enabling us to identify trends that require further explanation and research as we move toward models that can adequately inform policy discussions.