论文标题
量子计算的预测时间表
Forecasting timelines of quantum computing
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑如何在量子计算领域预测进展。为此，我们收集了一个量子计算机系统的数据集，按照其物理量子台和门错误率进行了评分，并定义了一个索引，结合了两个指标，即广义逻辑量子。我们研究了物理速度与门错误率之间的关系，并初步得出结论，它们是正相关的（尽管有一些疑问，但表明它们之间的发展前沿，它们之间进行了交易。我们还将对数线性回归应用于指标，以期待随着时间的推移预期的进展，提供了暂定的上限。在我们模型的假设（通常是乐观的）假设中，包括关键假设，即在Qubit数量计数和门口的忠诚度中呈指数进步，我们估计，基于超导技术基于超导技术的概念证明易耐受耐受性的计算不可能在2026年之前展示（<5％的信心），并且在2026年之前表现出来的量子decelition cortress cortress cortress cortress cortress rsa-defress rsa-203 cotsa ins verty Issa ins fore Is atsa-2048 ry Is <5％（<5％）（<5％）（<5％）。实际上，这些里程碑可能会较早地达到，但是这需要比以前更快的进展。
We consider how to forecast progress in the domain of quantum computing. For this purpose we collect a dataset of quantum computer systems to date, scored on their physical qubits and gate error rate, and we define an index combining both metrics, the generalized logical qubit. We study the relationship between physical qubits and gate error rate, and tentatively conclude that they are positively correlated (albeit with some room for doubt), indicating a frontier of development that trades-off between them. We also apply a log-linear regression on the metrics to provide a tentative upper bound on how much progress can be expected over time. Within the (generally optimistic) assumptions of our model, including the key assumption that exponential progress in qubit count and gate fidelity will continue, we estimate that that proof-of-concept fault-tolerant computation based on superconductor technology is unlikely (<5% confidence) to be exhibited before 2026, and that quantum devices capable of factoring RSA-2048 are unlikely (<5% confidence) to exist before 2039. It is of course possible that these milestones will in fact be reached earlier, but that this would require faster progress than has yet been seen.
