论文标题

Covid-19在美国的传播如何政治化?使用运输和天气数据的分析

How Political is the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States? An Analysis using Transportation and Weather Data

论文作者

Vombatkere, Karan, Lyu, Hanjia, Luo, Jiebo

论文摘要

我们调查了唐纳德·特朗普(Red)(红色)赢得的美国赢得的美国与希拉里·克林顿(Blue)赢得的国家在2016年总统大选中赢得的国家之间的差异,该州是通过开采2020年3月至2020年7月的美国居民的运输方式。为了确保公平的比较,我们首先将50个州的k-means聚集方法与五个州的群体相提并论。然后,我们使用居民的平均居民和每人旅行数量的平均百分比来表征不同状态居民的每日运输方式。对于每个州,我们在官方国家重新开放日期之前和之后的2个月期间研究旅行模式与感染率之间的相关性。我们观察到,在锁定期间,红色和蓝色状态都表现出其旅行模式和感染率之间的强烈正相关。但是,在各州重新开放后,我们发现在所有五个州集群中,红色州都比蓝色州具有更高的旅行感染相关性。我们发现,红色和蓝色状态的居民在此期间重新开放的期间都显示出相似的旅行方式,这使我们得出结论,平均而言,红色州的居民可能比蓝色州的居民更安全地动员。此外,我们使用温度数据来解释居民行进和练习安全措施的差异。

We investigate the difference in the spread of COVID-19 between the states won by Donald Trump (Red) and the states won by Hillary Clinton (Blue) in the 2016 presidential election, by mining transportation patterns of US residents from March 2020 to July 2020. To ensure a fair comparison, we first use a K-means clustering method to group the 50 states into five clusters according to their population, area and population density. We then characterize daily transportation patterns of the residents of different states using the mean percentage of residents traveling and the number of trips per person. For each state, we study the correlations between travel patterns and infection rate for a 2-month period before and after the official states reopening dates. We observe that during the lock-down, Red and Blue states both displayed strong positive correlations between their travel patterns and infection rates. However, after states reopened we find that Red states had higher travel-infection correlations than Blue states in all five state clusters. We find that the residents of both Red and Blue states displayed similar travel patterns during the period post the reopening of states, leading us to conclude that, on average, the residents in Red states might be mobilizing less safely than the residents in Blue states. Furthermore, we use temperature data to attempt to explain the difference in the way residents travel and practice safety measures.

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