论文标题
慢慢爆炸：对2017年休斯顿太空人队的调查
Bang the Can Slowly: An Investigation into the 2017 Houston Astros
论文作者
论文摘要
该手稿是对2017年美国职业棒球大联盟丑闻的统计调查，该丑闻涉及休斯顿太空人队，这是同年世界大赛冠军冠军。据称，太空人偷走了对手的投球标志，以便为击球手提供潜在的不公平优势。这项工作发现令人信服的证据表明，太空人在场上的表现受到偷窃策略的显着影响并量化了效果。手稿中的三个主要发现是：1）当符号被盗时，Astros在球场上摇摆的几率减少了大约27％（OR：0.725，95％CI：（0.618，0.850））时，当Astros球员摇摆时，与球接触的几率增加了大约80％（或95％CI）。非速度球场，3）当太空人在知道标志的球场上与球接触时，球的出口速度（发射速度）平均每小时增加2.386（95％CI：（0.334，4.451））每小时。
This manuscript is a statistical investigation into the 2017 Major League Baseball scandal involving the Houston Astros, the World Series championship winner that same year. The Astros were alleged to have stolen their opponents' pitching signs in order to provide their batters with a potentially unfair advantage. This work finds compelling evidence that the Astros on-field performance was significantly affected by their sign-stealing ploy and quantifies the effects. The three main findings in the manuscript are: 1) the Astros' odds of swinging at a pitch were reduced by approximately 27% (OR: 0.725, 95% CI: (0.618, 0.850)) when the sign was stolen, 2) when an Astros player swung, the odds of making contact with the ball increased roughly 80% (OR: 1.805, 95% CI: (1.342, 2.675)) on non-fastball pitches, and 3) when the Astros made contact with a ball on a pitch in which the sign was known, the ball's exit velocity (launch speed) increased on average by 2.386 (95% CI: (0.334, 4.451)) miles per hour.
