论文标题
基于拓扑的聚类回归用于用户细分和需求预测
Topology-based Clusterwise Regression for User Segmentation and Demand Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
拓扑数据分析(TDA)是一种从其拓扑结构的角度分析数据集的最新方法。它用于时间序列数据受到限制。在这项工作中,介绍了为将用户细分和需求预测结合的云计算提供商开发的系统。它由一种基于TDA的聚类方法组成的时间序列组成,其灵感来自于一个流行的管理框架用于客户细分的管理框架,并使用矩阵分解方法扩展到群集回归的情况,以预测需求。提高客户忠诚度和产生准确的预测仍然是研究人员和经理的积极讨论主题。该研究使用公共和新颖的专有数据集的商业数据集,该研究表明,该系统使分析师能够将其用户群聚集,并计划在颗粒状水平上计划需求,其准确性明显高于最先进的基线状态。因此,这项工作旨在引入基于TDA的时间序列的聚类,并使用矩阵分解方法作为从业者的可行工具。
Topological Data Analysis (TDA) is a recent approach to analyze data sets from the perspective of their topological structure. Its use for time series data has been limited. In this work, a system developed for a leading provider of cloud computing combining both user segmentation and demand forecasting is presented. It consists of a TDA-based clustering method for time series inspired by a popular managerial framework for customer segmentation and extended to the case of clusterwise regression using matrix factorization methods to forecast demand. Increasing customer loyalty and producing accurate forecasts remain active topics of discussion both for researchers and managers. Using a public and a novel proprietary data set of commercial data, this research shows that the proposed system enables analysts to both cluster their user base and plan demand at a granular level with significantly higher accuracy than a state of the art baseline. This work thus seeks to introduce TDA-based clustering of time series and clusterwise regression with matrix factorization methods as viable tools for the practitioner.