论文标题
基于季节调整的大规模搜索引擎日志的功能选择方法
Seasonal-adjustment Based Feature Selection Method for Large-scale Search Engine Logs
论文作者
论文摘要
搜索引擎原木在跟踪和预测传染病爆发方面具有很大的潜力。更确切地说,可以使用一些搜索词的搜索量来预测传染病的感染率几乎实时。但是,由于搜索日志的以下双向不稳定性特征,使用搜索引擎日志对爆发进行准确稳定的预测是一项艰巨的任务。首先,搜索词的搜索量可能在短期内不规则地变化,例如,由于媒体或新闻的数量等环境因素。其次,由于搜索引擎的人口变化,搜索量也可能会在长期内发生变化。也就是说,如果一个模型经过此类搜索日志的训练,而忽略了这种特征,那么当发生这些变化时,由此产生的预测将包含严重的错误预测。 在这项工作中,我们提出了一种新的功能选择方法来克服这个不稳定问题。特别是,我们采用了一种季节性调整方法,将每个时间序列分解为三个组成部分:季节性,趋势和不规则组件,并为每个组件构建预测模型。我们还仔细设计了一种功能选择方法,以选择适当的搜索词来预测每个组件。我们对十种不同种类的传染病进行了全面的实验。实验结果表明,在现已铸造和预测设置中,该方法的预测准确性优于预测准确性的所有比较方法。同样,提出的方法在选择与目标疾病语义相关的搜索词方面更为成功。
Search engine logs have a great potential in tracking and predicting outbreaks of infectious disease. More precisely, one can use the search volume of some search terms to predict the infection rate of an infectious disease in nearly real-time. However, conducting accurate and stable prediction of outbreaks using search engine logs is a challenging task due to the following two-way instability characteristics of the search logs. First, the search volume of a search term may change irregularly in the short-term, for example, due to environmental factors such as the amount of media or news. Second, the search volume may also change in the long-term due to the demographic change of the search engine. That is to say, if a model is trained with such search logs with ignoring such characteristic, the resulting prediction would contain serious mispredictions when these changes occur. In this work, we proposed a novel feature selection method to overcome this instability problem. In particular, we employ a seasonal-adjustment method that decomposes each time series into three components: seasonal, trend and irregular component and build prediction models for each component individually. We also carefully design a feature selection method to select proper search terms to predict each component. We conducted comprehensive experiments on ten different kinds of infectious diseases. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms all comparative methods in prediction accuracy for seven of ten diseases, in both now-casting and forecasting setting. Also, the proposed method is more successful in selecting search terms that are semantically related to target diseases.