论文标题
在较低的进口情况下，流行模型中行为诱导的振荡的稳健性
Robustness of behaviourally-induced oscillations in epidemic models under a low rate of imported cases
论文作者
论文摘要
本文关注的是，在接触网络上定义的流行病模型预测的持续振荡的鲁棒性。该模型结合了个人在个人之间的传播，此外，进口案件的流入很少。当我们模拟流行病时，这些情况可以防止随机灭绝，因此，它们允许检查感染个体比例的平均动力学是否由ODE模型准确预测。随机模拟证实了不同类型的随机网络的持续振荡，随着易感人的警觉速率从非常小的值提高，从非振荡渐近制度向周期性造成的急剧过渡。通过使用警报率和意识到的个体作为调音参数计算的感染率和感染传输率，通过从ODE模型计算出的HOPF-Bifurcation曲线，可以非常准确地预测到高振幅的周期性流行病的突然过渡。
This paper is concerned with the robustness of the sustained oscillations predicted by an epidemic ODE model defined on contact networks. The model incorporates the spread of awareness among individuals and, moreover, a small inflow of imported cases. These cases prevent stochastic extinctions when we simulate the epidemics and, hence, they allow to check whether the average dynamics for the fraction of infected individuals are accurately predicted by the ODE model. Stochastic simulations confirm the existence of sustained oscillations for different types of random networks, with a sharp transition from a non-oscillatory asymptotic regime to a periodic one as the alerting rate of susceptible individuals increases from very small values. This abrupt transition to periodic epidemics of high amplitude is quite accurately predicted by the Hopf-bifurcation curve computed from the ODE model using the alerting rate and the infection transmission rate for aware individuals as tuning parameters.
