论文标题
人类在循环控制系统设计的行为经济学设计:过度自信和热手谬论
Behavioral Economics for Human-in-the-loop Control Systems Design: Overconfidence and the hot hand fallacy
论文作者
论文摘要
成功设计人类的控制系统需要为人类决策者提供适当的模型。尽管控制系统文献中采用的大多数范式都隐藏了人类的(有限)决策能力,但在行为经济学中,个人决策和优化过程众所周知,受感知和行为偏见的影响。我们的目标是通过在与控制相关的环境中暴露这种偏见,通过行为经济学研究的一些见解来丰富控制工程。本文解决了以下两个关键问题:1)行为偏见如何影响决策? 2)反馈在人类的控制系统中所扮演的角色是什么?我们的实验框架表明,当个人面对驾驶无人机处于风险和不确定性的任务时,与现实世界中的决策情况相关的任务。我们的发现支持人类在行为偏见的基本的网络物理系统中的概念,而不论接受即时的结果反馈。我们观察到无人机控制器的大量份额可以通过过度飞行(过度自信)或过度保守(自信)来效率低下。此外,我们通过受到“热手谬论”的影响,观察到人类控制者对自我服务的随机序列进行误解。我们建议控制工程师注意人类组成部分,以免通过人类问题妥协技术成就。
Successful design of human-in-the-loop control systems requires appropriate models for human decision makers. Whilst most paradigms adopted in the control systems literature hide the (limited) decision capability of humans, in behavioral economics individual decision making and optimization processes are well-known to be affected by perceptual and behavioral biases. Our goal is to enrich control engineering with some insights from behavioral economics research through exposing such biases in control-relevant settings. This paper addresses the following two key questions: 1) How do behavioral biases affect decision making? 2) What is the role played by feedback in human-in-the-loop control systems? Our experimental framework shows how individuals behave when faced with the task of piloting an UAV under risk and uncertainty, paralleling a real-world decision-making scenario. Our findings support the notion of humans in Cyberphysical Systems underlying behavioral biases regardless of -- or even because of -- receiving immediate outcome feedback. We observe substantial shares of drone controllers to act inefficiently through either flying excessively (overconfident) or overly conservatively (underconfident). Furthermore, we observe human-controllers to self-servingly misinterpret random sequences through being subject to a "hot hand fallacy". We advise control engineers to mind the human component in order not to compromise technological accomplishments through human issues.