论文标题
COVID-19的印度特定隔室模型：通过合并地理，基础设施和响应异质性，预测和干预策略
An India-specific Compartmental Model for Covid-19: Projections and Intervention Strategies by Incorporating Geographical, Infrastructural and Response Heterogeneity
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了Covid-19在印度传播的隔室元群体群体模型。我们的模型使用适合COVID-19的流行病学模型模拟了地区或州一级的人群。不同地区通过使用可用普查数据开发的运输矩阵连接。我们将测试率中的不确定性介绍到模型中，该模型考虑了不同状态对流行病的不同反应以及公共医疗保健系统状况的因素。我们的模型使我们能够在印度生成Covid-19的定性预测，并进一步允许我们研究不同提议的干预措施的影响。通过在地理和基础设施水平以及当地反应中建立异质性，我们的模型旨在捕捉适合印度等多元化国家的流行病学建模的某些复杂性。
We present a compartmental meta-population model for the spread of Covid-19 in India. Our model simulates populations at a district or state level using an epidemiological model that is appropriate to Covid-19. Different districts are connected by a transportation matrix developed using available census data. We introduce uncertainties in the testing rates into the model that takes into account the disparate responses of the different states to the epidemic and also factors in the state of the public healthcare system. Our model allows us to generate qualitative projections of Covid-19 spread in India, and further allows us to investigate the effects of different proposed interventions. By building in heterogeneity at geographical and infrastructural levels and in local responses, our model aims to capture some of the complexity of epidemiological modeling appropriate to a diverse country such as India.
