论文标题
COVID-19-19
The COVID-19 Pandemic, Community Mobility and the Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions: The United States of America, February to May 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
背景：个人非药物干预措施（NPI）的影响，例如全州范围内的居住订单，学校关闭和收集规模限制对COVID-19的流行病的影响尚不清楚。了解上述NPI对疾病传播的影响对于政策制定者至关重要，尤其是随着某些领域的案件数量再次增加。 方法：使用贝叶斯框架，我们重建了发病率和时变生殖数（RT）曲线，以调查RT之间的关系，通过Google Community Mobility Reports衡量的个人流动性和NPI。 结果：我们发现生殖数量和迁移率之间存在牢固的关系，与基线相比，RT的迁移率下降与预期降低10.2％有关。限制对聚会，学校和业务关闭以及在家订单的规模的影响由随着时间的推移趋势主导，这与生殖数量减少了48％，并调整了NPI。 结论：我们发现，与时间相关的活动性的下降可能是由于个人因响应感知的风险或外部因素而改变其行为。
Background: The impact of individual non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as state-wide stay-at-home orders, school closures and gathering size limitations, on the COVID-19 epidemic is unknown. Understanding the impact that above listed NPI have on disease transmission is critical for policy makers, particularly as case counts increase again in some areas. Methods: Using a Bayesian framework, we reconstructed the incidence and time-varying reproductive number (Rt) curves to investigate the relationship between Rt, individual mobility as measured by Google Community Mobility Reports, and NPI. Results: We found a strong relationship between reproductive number and mobility, with each 10% drop in mobility being associated with an expected 10.2% reduction in Rt compared to baseline. The effects of limitations on the size of gatherings, school and business closures, and stay-at-home orders were dominated by the trend over time, which was associated with a 48% decrease in the reproductive number, adjusting for the NPI. Conclusions: We found that the decrease in mobility associated with time may be due to individuals changing their behavior in response to perceived risk or external factors.
