论文标题
巴西精英足球的主场优势：验证经理超越自己的不利地位的能力
Home Advantage in the Brazilian Elite Football: Verifying managers' capacity to outperform their disadvantage
论文作者
论文摘要
在足球方面的主场优势（HA），足球在文献中得到了充分的文献记载。但是，对这种现象的解释尚未完成，因为本文表明，通过管理计划和干预（策略）可以克服这种劣势，迄今为止在文献中没有效果。为此，这项研究开发了一个团队绩效的综合理论模型，以根据先前的文献来解释HA，从而推动其限制以在足球中这种持续的绩效模式中展现经理角色。从公共消息来源获得了巴西全国锦标赛十年的数据，其中包括有关参加这些比赛的所有12支球队的比赛和教练的信息。我们的概念建模允许对HA和绩效进行经验分析，涵盖了策略的影响，在比赛中存在支持者以及通过逻辑回归的团队疲劳。结果证实了巴西足球精英部门在各个级别的比较技术质量上的HA，这是一个新变量，用于控制团队之间潜在的技术差距（这会使管理影响无效）。进一步的分析提供了证据表明，突出了管理能力，可以阻止HA效应超出疲劳（旅行距离）和比赛中人的密度的影响。教练亚伯·布拉加（Abel Braga），马塞洛·费尔南德斯（Marcelo Fernandes）和罗杰·马查多（Roger Machado）就是这种情况，他们在与类似质量的球队比赛时能够逆转HA。总体而言，随着比较质量的提高，家庭优势会降低，但仅当两支球队的技术质量截然不同时才消失。
Home advantage (HA) in football, soccer is well documented in the literature; however, the explanation for such phenomenon is yet to be completed, as this paper demonstrates that it is possible to overcome such disadvantage through managerial planning and intervention (tactics), an effect so far absent in the literature. To accomplish that, this study develops an integrative theoretical model of team performance to explain HA based on prior literature, pushing its limits to unfold the manager role in such a persistent pattern of performance in soccer. Data on one decade of the national tournament of Brazil was obtained from public sources, including information about matches and coaches of all 12 teams who played these competitions. Our conceptual modeling allows an empirical analysis of HA and performance that covers the effects of tactics, presence of supporters in matches and team fatigue via logistic regression. The results confirm the HA in the elite division of Brazilian soccer across all levels of comparative technical quality, a new variable introduced to control for a potential technical gap between teams (something that would turn the managerial influence null). Further analysis provides evidence that highlights managerial capacity to block the HA effect above and beyond the influences of fatigue (distance traveled) and density of people in the matches. This is the case of coaches Abel Braga, Marcelo Fernandes and Roger Machado, who were capable to reverse HA when playing against teams of similar quality. Overall, the home advantage diminishes as the comparative quality increases but disappears only when the two teams are of extremely different technical quality.
