论文标题
霍乱流行的空间建模：大量定律
Spatial modeling of cholera epidemic: A Law of Large Numbers
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了一个随机模型，用于研究空间霍乱的流行病扩散，在该空间霍乱流体扩散中，社区（人类和细菌）在空间上分布在一维晶格上，并且细菌沿着被认为是研究区域的水文连接的网络链路运输。我们证明了一项大量定律，表明在大型社区（人类和细菌）中，随机模型作为确定性的空间模型的行为在文献中提出和研究，因此，询问这两个版本之间会发生大幅波动效应是非常不可避免的。这个问题将在即将到来的工作中被视为大偏差估计。我们还讨论了工作结束时，可以使用类似的数学工具来处理不同可能的缩放，并导致不同的限制。
In this paper we propose a Stochastic model for studying a spatial cholera epidemic spreading where communities (Humans and Bacteria) are spatially distributed on a one-dimensional lattice and the bacteria are transported along a network links that are thought as the hydrological connection in the studied area. We prove a Law of Large numbers which suggest that in large communities (both Human and Bacteria) the stochastic model behave as a deterministic spatial model proposed and studied in the literature and therefore it is quite unavoidable to ask how large fluctuations effect can occur between these two version. That question will be treated in a forthcoming work as large deviations estimates. We also discuss at the end of the work different possible scaling that could be treated using similar mathematical tools and which lead to different limits.
