论文标题
宗教上关于英国Covid19死亡率的注释：哪些群体最有风险？
A Note on UK Covid19 death rates by religion: which groups are most at risk?
论文作者
论文摘要
在英国，人们非常担心，与其他种族相比，来自Covid19的Bame（黑人和少数民族）社区死于Covid19的风险要高得多。但是，政府对宗教死亡的最新报告（国家统计局）的总体死亡数据表明，犹太人（很少有人被归类为Bame）的风险要高于宗教（印度教，锡克教徒，穆斯林，穆斯林）的风险要高得多。根据ONS统计分析，这一显然矛盾的结果是由年龄暗示地解释的，因为该报告声称，当“适应年龄”时，穆斯林的死亡风险最高。但是，该报告未能提供原始数据来支持这一点。除了年龄以外，还有许多因素必须纳入对观察到的数据的任何分析，然后才能根据宗教/种族对风险得出明确的结论。我们提出了对此的因果模型的需求。如果我们打折未知的遗传因素，那么宗教和种族一旦我们知道他们的年龄，基本的医疗状况，工作/生活条件以及社会疏远程度，宗教和种族就对一个人的Covid19死亡风险完全没有影响。
There has been great concern in the UK that people from the BAME (Black And Minority Ethnic) community have a far higher risk of dying from Covid19 than those of other ethnicities. However, the overall fatalities data from the Government's ONS (Office of National Statistics) most recent report on deaths by religion shows that Jews (very few of whom are classified as BAME) have a much higher risk than those of religions (Hindu, Sikh, Muslim) with predominantly BAME people. This apparently contradictory result is, according to the ONS statistical analysis, implicitly explained by age as the report claims that, when 'adjusted for age' Muslims have the highest fatality risk. However, the report fails to provide the raw data to support this. There are many factors other than just age that must be incorporated into any analysis of the observed data before making definitive conclusions about risk based on religion/ethnicity. We propose the need for a causal model for this. If we discount unknown genetic factors, then religion and ethnicity have NO impact at all on a person's Covid19 death risk once we know their age, underlying medical conditions, work/living conditions, and extent of social distancing.
