论文标题

一种基于两级Kriging的方法,具有积极学习,用于解决时间变化的风险优化问题

A two-level Kriging-based approach with active learning for solving time-variant risk optimization problems

论文作者

Kroetz, H. M., Moustapha, M., Beck, A. T., Sudret, B.

论文摘要

文献中已经提出了几种方法来解决基于可靠性的优化问题,而故障概率是设计约束。但是,很少有方法可以解决生命周期成本或风险优化的问题,而故障概率是目标函数的一部分。此外,文献中很少有论文解决生命周期成本或风险优化公式中的时间变化的可靠性问题;特别是因为需要计算昂贵的蒙特卡洛模拟。本文提出了一个数值框架,用于解决涉及时间变化可靠性分析的一般风险优化问题。为了减轻蒙特卡洛模拟的计算负担,使用了两个自适应耦合替代模型:第一个用于近似目标函数,第二个用于近似于准静态极限态函数。实施了选择其他支持点以提高替代模型的准确性的迭代程序。使用三个应用问题来说明所提出的方法。两个例子涉及随机负载和随机电阻降解过程。第三个问题与负载依赖性失败有关。在基于风险的优化的背景下,该主题尚未解决。本文显示,获得准确的解决方案,目标函数数量极有限,并且限制状态函数调用。

Several methods have been proposed in the literature to solve reliability-based optimization problems, where failure probabilities are design constraints. However, few methods address the problem of life-cycle cost or risk optimization, where failure probabilities are part of the objective function. Moreover, few papers in the literature address time-variant reliability problems in life-cycle cost or risk optimization formulations; in particular, because most often computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulation is required. This paper proposes a numerical framework for solving general risk optimization problems involving time-variant reliability analysis. To alleviate the computational burden of Monte Carlo simulation, two adaptive coupled surrogate models are used: the first one to approximate the objective function, and the second one to approximate the quasi-static limit state function. An iterative procedure is implemented for choosing additional support points to increase the accuracy of the surrogate models. Three application problems are used to illustrate the proposed approach. Two examples involve random load and random resistance degradation processes. The third problem is related to load-path dependent failures. This subject had not yet been addressed in the context of risk-based optimization. It is shown herein that accurate solutions are obtained, with extremely limited numbers of objective function and limit state functions calls.

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