论文标题

ACTSIS流行动力学中的主动控制和持续振荡

Active Control and Sustained Oscillations in actSIS Epidemic Dynamics

论文作者

Zhou, Yunxiu, Levin, Simon A., Leonard, Naomi E.

论文摘要

提出了一种积极控制的易感感染感染感染(ACTSIS)传染模型,用于研究感染率连续反馈控制的流行动力学。我们的工作灵感来自观察到,可以通过分散的疾病控制策略(例如隔离,庇护,庇护,社会疏远等)来控制流行病,在该策略中,个人会积极改变与他人的接触率,以应对人群感染水平的观察。根据观察结果的时间滞后,并根据其风险概况将个人分类为不同的子人群,我们表明,与SIS模型相比,ACTSIS模型在质上不同。在均匀的风险促成者中,尽管瞬态感染水平可以表现出过度冲动或散发性,但流行均衡总是会降低。在统一的含有风险的人群中,该系统具有双重性,这也可能导致感染减少。对于由风险耐酸者和风险促成者组成的异质人群,我们证明了模型参数的条件,用于在感染人群中存在HOPF分叉和持续振荡。

An actively controlled Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (actSIS) contagion model is presented for studying epidemic dynamics with continuous-time feedback control of infection rates. Our work is inspired by the observation that epidemics can be controlled through decentralized disease-control strategies such as quarantining, sheltering in place, social distancing, etc., where individuals actively modify their contact rates with others in response to observations of infection levels in the population. Accounting for a time lag in observations and categorizing individuals into distinct sub-populations based on their risk profiles, we show that the actSIS model manifests qualitatively different features as compared with the SIS model. In a homogeneous population of risk-averters, the endemic equilibrium is always reduced, although the transient infection level can exhibit overshoot or undershoot. In a homogeneous population of risk-tolerating individuals, the system exhibits bistability, which can also lead to reduced infection. For a heterogeneous population comprised of risk-tolerators and risk-averters, we prove conditions on model parameters for the existence of a Hopf bifurcation and sustained oscillations in the infected population.

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