论文标题
使用对称性，凸性调整和债券价格来解决牛群免疫悖论
Addressing the Herd Immunity Paradox Using Symmetry, Convexity Adjustments and Bond Prices
论文作者
论文摘要
在恒定参数隔室模型中，牛群免疫的早期发作与早期生长的R值的估计相反。本文利用了利率建模理论的结果，即Vasicek的债券定价公式，以及受统计基础结果De Finetti定理的基础结果启发的方法，以说明如何解释建模差异。此外，可以将经典恒定参数流行病学模型的预测与具有变化和随机演化的预测之间的差异可简化为简单的“凸度”公式。这种方法的一个新功能是，我们没有试图找到一个真实的模型，而只是在排列后等效的模型。凸度调整也可以用于横截面比较，我们得出了易于使用的经验规则，用于估计一个区域中一个区域中阈值感染水平的估计知识。
In constant parameter compartmental models an early onset of herd immunity is at odds with estimates of R values from early stage growth. This paper utilizes a result from the theory of interest rate modeling, namely a bond pricing formula of Vasicek, and an approach inspired by a foundational result in statistics, de Finetti's Theorem, to show how the modeling discrepancy can be explained. Moreover the difference between predictions of classic constant parameter epidemiological models and those with variation and stochastic evolution can be reduced to simple "convexity" formulas. A novel feature of this approach is that we do not attempt to locate a true model but only a model that is equivalent after permutations. Convexity adjustments can also be used for cross sectional comparisons and we derive easy to use rules of thumb for estimating threshold infection level in one region given knowledge of threshold infection in another.
