论文标题
南极冰盖 - 高未来碳排放下的气候反馈
Antarctic ice sheet - climate feedbacks under high future carbon emissions
论文作者
论文摘要
撤退南极冰盖的淡水强迫可能会对未来的全球气候产生广泛的影响。在这里，我们报告了使用完全耦合的数值模型进行的多个世纪（现在2250）的气候模拟，该模型在未来的温室气体排放场景下集成了IPCC RCP4.5和8.5，并由动态性心电图冰盖模型提供了融化的排放。解释南极的融合水贡献使冰河边缘的地下海洋温度提高了1 c，超出了目前预计的速度。相比之下，南部海洋的2-10 C凉的表面空气和海洋温度会导致海冰扩展并延迟预计的全球平均人为变暖的增加。此外，预计北极冬季冰的损失和大西洋子午倾覆循环的削弱被延迟了几十年。我们的结果表明，如果我们要做出充满信心的气候预测，则显然需要更准确地说明冰盖的融水输入。
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model integrated under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5, with meltwater discharge provided by a dynamic-thermodynamic ice sheet model. Accounting for Antarctica's meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures by 1 C at the ice margin, beyond rates currently projected. In contrast, 2-10 C cooler surface air and ocean temperatures in the Southern Ocean cause sea ice to expand and delay the increase of projected global mean anthropogenic warming. In addition, the projected loss of Arctic winter sea ice and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are delayed be several decades. Our results demonstrate a clear need to more accurately account for meltwater input from ice sheets if we are to make confident climate predictions.
