论文标题
根据2020年德国爆发期间的官方病例数量估算实际疾病发生的情况
Estimation of the actual disease occurrence based on official case numbers during a COVID outbreak in Germany 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
自2020年3月初以来，每天都报道了德国新型冠状病毒SARS-COV-2感染的累积病例。该报告源于国家法律，根据该法律，必须通过当地卫生当局将积极的测试结果提交给联邦卫生当局，罗伯特·科赫研究所。由于可以预期大量未报告的案件，因此基于这些行政报告，无法回答该疾病如何普遍存在的问题。但是，使用数学建模可以进行估计。这些估计表明，在爆发开始时进行的少量诊断测试忽略了感染的相当大部分。为了涵盖未来疾病的初始阶段，建议进行广泛和全面的测试。
Since the beginning of March 2020, the cumulative numbers of cases of infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany have been reported on a daily basis. The reports originate from national laws, according to which positive test findings must be submitted to the Federal Health Authorities, the Robert Koch Institute, via the local health authorities. Since an enormous number of unreported cases can be expected, the question of how widespread the disease has been in the population cannot be answered based on these administrative reports. Using mathematical modeling, however, estimates can be made. These estimates indicate that the small numbers of diagnostic tests carried out at the beginning of the outbreak overlooked considerable parts of the infection. In order to cover the initial phase of future waves of the disease, wide-spread and comprehensive tests are recommended.
