论文标题
notaTécnicaDosModelos exmentados pelo coletivo covid19br paraprojeçõesdeCenáriosfuturos futuros da pandemia da pandemia covid-19 no Brasil
Nota Técnica dos Modelos Implementados pelo Coletivo Covid19br para Projeções de Cenários Futuros da Pandemia COVID-19 no Brasil
论文作者
论文摘要
该技术说明旨在简要介绍该小组在前几天的行为中，该小组用来实时为州和市政当局投射未来方案。但是，用户可以修改参数以设计自定义的方案。拟议的模型首先根据过去12天的案件发生率的州或市政当局的基本繁殖数量开始。完成此操作后，使用SEIR隔室的流行病模型预测流行病学曲线，该曲线拥有该曲线，这是新投射的新受感染的一部分，进入排队理论中的卫生系统的模拟模型，旨在投射未来的职业和崩溃。
This technical note aims to provide a brief introduction to the projection models used by the group to project future scenarios for states and municipalities in real-time, according to the disease's behavior in previous days. However, the parameters can be modified by the user to design customized scenarios. The proposed model begins with the calculation of the basic reproduction number for the state or municipality based on the incidence of cases in the last 12 days. Once this is done, the epidemiological curve is projected using the SEIR compartmentalized epidemic model, in possession of this curve, part of the newly projected infected enter a simulation model for health systems in queuing theory, aiming to project future occupations and collapses.
