论文标题

疾病随着社会距离传播:无序多重网络中的预防策略

Disease spreading with social distancing: A prevention strategy in disordered multiplex networks

论文作者

Perez, I. A., Di Muro, M. A., La Rocca, C. E., Braunstein, L. A.

论文摘要

疾病的频繁出现,可能会在局部和全球范围内成为威胁,例如流感(H1N1),SARS,MERS以及最近的Covid-19疾病,这对于继续设计疾病传播模型和策略以防止或减轻人群的影响至关重要。由于在任何情况下,尤其是在人类接触网络中,孤立的系统非常罕见,因此我们在这里检查了在由两个不同的网络或层形成的多重网络中传播的易感感染的疾病模型,该模型是由两个不同的网络或层形成的,通过分数$ q $共享个人(重叠)互连。我们通过加权网络对相互作用进行建模,因为人与人之间的互动是多种多样(或无序)。权重代表相互作用的接触时间。使用模拟支持的分支理论,我们分析了一种社会距离策略,该策略降低了两层的平均接触时间,其中距离的强度与层的拓扑相关。我们发现,可以预防流行病的距离强度的临界值,随着重叠$ Q $的增加而增加。同样,我们研究了社会距离对易感人群相互巨大组成部分的影响,这对于保持系统的功能至关重要。此外,我们发现,对于重叠$ Q $的相对较小的值,可能根本不需要社交距离政策来维持系统的功能。

The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and strategies to prevent or mitigate their effects in populations. Since isolated systems are exceptionally rare to find in any context, especially in human contact networks, here we examine the susceptible-infected-recovered model of disease spreading in a multiplex network formed by two distinct networks or layers, interconnected through a fraction $q$ of shared individuals (overlap). We model the interactions through weighted networks, because person-to-person interactions are diverse (or disordered); weights represent the contact times of the interactions. Using branching theory supported by simulations, we analyze a social distancing strategy that reduces the average contact time in both layers, where the intensity of the distancing is related to the topology of the layers. We find that the critical values of the distancing intensities, above which an epidemic can be prevented, increase with the overlap $q$. Also we study the effect of the social distancing on the mutual giant component of susceptible individuals, which is crucial to keep the functionality of the system. In addition, we find that for relatively small values of the overlap $q$, social distancing policies might not be needed at all to maintain the functionality of the system.

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