论文标题
通过估计繁殖数量随着时间的推移来监视Covid-19的传播
Monitoring the spread of COVID-19 by estimating reproduction numbers over time
论文作者
论文摘要
为了控制2019年冠状病毒病的当前爆发，需要对流行病进行持续的监测，因为截至目前，尚无疫苗或抗病毒药对其进行。我们每天在https://stochastik-tu-ilmenau.github.io/covid-19/上提供随着时间时间的复制数量的每日更新估计。在本文档中，我们描述了（Fraser 2007）中开发的估计器，得出其渐近性能，并提供有关其实施的详细信息。此外，我们在模拟数据上验证了估计器，证明对实际数据的估计导致了合理的结果，并执行灵敏度分析。最后，我们讨论了为什么需要谨慎地解释所获得的估计值。
To control the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019, constant monitoring of the epidemic is required since, as of today, no vaccines or antiviral drugs against it are known. We provide daily updated estimates of the reproduction number over time at https://stochastik-tu-ilmenau.github.io/COVID-19/. In this document, we describe the estimator we are using which was developed in (Fraser 2007), derive its asymptotic properties, and we give details on its implementation. Furthermore, we validate the estimator on simulated data, demonstrate that estimates on real data lead to plausible results, and perform a sensitivity analysis. Finally, we discuss why the estimates obtained need to be interpreted with care.
