论文标题

市场影响的实证研究条件是订单流不平衡

Empirical Study of Market Impact Conditional on Order-Flow Imbalance

论文作者

Bugaenko, Anastasia

论文摘要

在这项研究中,我们经验研究了影响股票流动性的主要驱动因素。我们说明了代理商在金融市场中相互作用的理论模型(例如凯尔的模型)如何与在公开可用的交易和报价数据中观察到的现象保持一致。具体而言,我们确认,对于小签名的订单流程,价格影响随着订单流不平衡的增加而线性增长。进一步,我们已经实施了一种机器学习算法,以预测鉴于签名的订单流。我们的发现表明,机器学习模型可以用于估计财务变量。这种学习算法的预测准确性可以超过传统统计方法的性能。 了解价格影响的决定因素至关重要,原因有几个。从理论上的立场开始,对影响进行建模提供了流动性的统计量度。从业者采用影响模型作为贸易前工具,以估算预期交易成本并优化其策略的执行。这进一步用作交易后的估值基准,因为次优执行可能会大大恶化投资组合的性能。 更广泛地说,价格影响反映了整个市场流动性的平衡。这对于监管机构来说至关重要,因为它为市场设计与系统风险之间的相关性提供了无所不包的解释,从而使监管机构能够设计更稳定和高效的市场。

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

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