论文标题

利用移动性从位置技术平台到大城市测试犯罪模式理论

Leveraging Mobility Flows from Location Technology Platforms to Test Crime Pattern Theory in Large Cities

论文作者

Kadar, Cristina, Feuerriegel, Stefan, Noulas, Anastasios, Mascolo, Cecilia

论文摘要

犯罪以前是由住宅人口的社会特征解释的,如犯罪模式理论所规定的,也可能与非住宅游客的人类运动有关。然而,缺乏对后者的全面经验验证。主要原因是,先前的研究仅限于人类访客的汇总统计数据,而不是流动性流动,因此,忽略了人类运动的时间动态。作为一种补救措施,我们提供了第一批研究,该工作研究了颗粒状人类流动性在描述和预测犯罪集中的能力。为此,我们建议使用位置技术平台的数据。这种类型的数据使我们能够追踪个人过渡,因此,我们成功地区分了(i)正在与附近的(i)保留在其中的不同移动性流动,或者(iii)是指人们仅通过社区的过渡。我们的评估通过利用来自Foursquare的匿名数据集的流动性流动,该数据集在美国三个主要城市中连续接近1480万个签名。根据我们的经验结果,流动流与犯罪有着显着联系。这些发现提高了我们的理论理解,因为它们为犯罪模式理论提供了确认的证据。此外,我们对数字位置服务数据的新颖使用被证明是犯罪预测的有效工具。在研究人类流动与犯罪之间的联系时,它还提供了前所未有的粒度。

Crime has been previously explained by social characteristics of the residential population and, as stipulated by crime pattern theory, might also be linked to human movements of non-residential visitors. Yet a full empirical validation of the latter is lacking. The prime reason is that prior studies are limited to aggregated statistics of human visitors rather than mobility flows and, because of that, neglect the temporal dynamics of individual human movements. As a remedy, we provide the first work which studies the ability of granular human mobility in describing and predicting crime concentrations at an hourly scale. For this purpose, we propose the use of data from location technology platforms. This type of data allows us to trace individual transitions and, therefore, we succeed in distinguishing different mobility flows that (i) are incoming or outgoing from a neighborhood, (ii) remain within it, or (iii) refer to transitions where people only pass through the neighborhood. Our evaluation infers mobility flows by leveraging an anonymized dataset from Foursquare that includes almost 14.8 million consecutive check-ins in three major U.S. cities. According to our empirical results, mobility flows are significantly and positively linked to crime. These findings advance our theoretical understanding, as they provide confirmatory evidence for crime pattern theory. Furthermore, our novel use of digital location services data proves to be an effective tool for crime forecasting. It also offers unprecedented granularity when studying the connection between human mobility and crime.

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