论文标题
通过遏制措施的流行病
Epidemics with containment measures
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个包括遏制措施的可聊天流行模型。在没有遏制措施的情况下,每当感染率为正时,流行病呈指数迅速传播,$λ> 0 $。通过考虑对裸露感染性的时间依赖性调节$λ$,对遏制措施进行建模,从而导致每个受感染者及时衰减的有效感染性,例如模仿疾病无症状,测试策略和检疫的综合作用。我们考虑了各种颞核,以实现有效的感染性,并研究了所考虑的遏制措施的效果。我们发现,并非所有内核都能够将流行病动力学推向流行阈值以下,而某些遏制措施只能降低新感染个体的指数增长速度。我们还提出了由越来越多的分离灶引起的大流行模型。
We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $λ>0$. The containment measures are modeled by considering a time-dependent modulation of the bare infectivity $λ$ leading to effective infectivity that decays in time for each infected individual, mimicking for instance the combined effect of the asymptomatic onset of the disease, testing policies and quarantine. We consider a wide range of temporal kernels for effective infectivity and we investigate the effect of the considered containment measures. We find that not all kernels are able to push the epidemic dynamics below the epidemic threshold, with some containment measures only able to reduce the rate of the exponential growth of newly infected individuals. We also propose a pandemic model caused by a growing number of separated foci.