论文标题
COVID-19：伦巴第地区和贝加莫和布雷西亚省的数据分析
Covid-19: Data analysis of the Lombardy region and the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia
论文作者
论文摘要
关于伦巴第地区的死亡以及伯加莫和布雷西亚省的死亡的数据分析，在流行病的趋势上表现出了双重方面： - 所有数据表明，与3月10日的事件相关的偏见（伦巴第地区数据是部分数据）以及随后在积极案例和死亡的方式中变化的偏见。 - 遵循总理3月11日法令的遏制措施，尽管本质上仍然指数级，但该流行病的传播却降低了。我们的分析得出的结论是，这种情况尚未与高原趋势兼容，并使我们能够预测伦巴第地区死亡人数的趋势。因此，我们得出的结论是，政府于3月11日采取了遏制措施，将使3月27日的死亡人数从约8000人减少到6500多个。
The data analysis on deaths in the Lombardy Region and of both the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia shows a twofold aspect on the trend of the epidemic: - all the data show a bias linked to the event of March 10th (day for which the Lombardy region data is partial) and the subsequent change in the way in which positive cases and deaths are calculated; - following the containment measures of the Prime Minister's Decree of March 11th, the spread of the epidemic, although still exponential in nature, has a reduced multiplication coefficient. Our analysis concludes that the situation is not yet compatible with a plateau trend and allows us to predict the trend in the number of deaths in the Lombardy region. We therefore conclude that the containment measures put in place by the government on March 11th will allow a reduction in deaths from around 8000 to just over 6500 for March 27th.
