论文标题
COVID-19和原油价格是否推动了美国经济政策不确定性？
Do COVID-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertainty?
论文作者
论文摘要
本文研究了新型冠状病毒和原油价格对美国（美国）经济政策不确定性（EPU）的影响。使用2020年1月21日至3月13日的每日数据，我们的自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型表明，在全球水平上报告的新感染病例和死亡率对美国EPU没有显着影响，而石油价格负面动力学会导致不确定性增加。但是，在分析中国以外的情况时，我们发现新的案件公告和Covid-19相关的死亡率都会对美国EPU产生积极影响。
This paper investigates the effect of the novel coronavirus and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using daily data for the period January 21-March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that the new infection cases reported at global level, and the death ratio, have no significant effect on the US EPU, whereas the oil price negative dynamics leads to increased uncertainty. However, analyzing the situation outside China, we discover that both new case announcements and the COVID-19 associated death ratio have a positive influence on the US EPU.
