论文标题
在循环赛中识别相关性能指标
Identification of relevant performance indicators in round-robin tournaments
论文作者
论文摘要
生成无数的不同数据以表征足球比赛。在这里，我们讨论了哪些绩效指标特别有用，可以通过估计具有最低统计不确定性的基本团队优势来预测团队的未来结果。我们介绍了一个适当的统计框架，并为德国总理足球联盟提供了不同的性能指标。涉及两个方面：（i）如果没有有限信息引起的统计噪声，则可以量化估计过程的工作状态。相关分数直接表达了所选的性能指标的哪个程度反映了基本的团队实力。 （ii）此外，确定了由于统计噪声引起的预测质量的降低。从这两个信息中，都可以构建标准化值，这是对整体预测质量的直接衡量。事实证明，所谓的包装率最有效。当试图基于同一匹配的匹配特定观测值了解单一匹配的结果时，绩效指标的新观点会进入。讨论了对预测的目的以及对团队优势解释的后果的影响。
A myriad of different data are generated to characterize a soccer match. Here we discuss which performance indicators are particularly helpful to forecast the future results of a team via an estimation of the underlying team strengths with minimum statistical uncertainty. We introduce an appropriate statistical framework and exemplify it for different performance indicators for the German premier soccer league. Two aspects are involved: (i) It is quantified how well the estimation process would work if no statistical noise due to finite information is present. The related score directly expresses to which degree the chosen performance indicator reflects the underlying team strength. (ii) Additionally, the reduction of the forecasting quality due to statistical noise is determined. From both pieces of information a normalized value can be constructed which is a direct measure of the overall forecasting quality. It turns out that the so-called packing rate works best. New perspectives of performance indicators enter when trying to understand the outcome of single matches based on match-specific observations from the same match. Implications for the purpose of forecasting as well as consequences for the interpretation of team strengths are discussed.
