论文标题
冠状病毒通过宏观生长法律传播的数据分析
Data analysis on Coronavirus spreading by macroscopic growth laws
论文作者
论文摘要
为了评估遏制对2019年新冠状病毒疾病流行病的有效性，我们通过考虑众所周知的宏观生长法，Gompertz Law和Logistic Law来进行对所选数量不同国家中感染的时间演变的分析。我们在这里还提出了Gompertz Law的概括。我们的数据分析允许评估受感染个体的最大数量。必须将每日数据与获得的拟合进行比较，以验证扩散是否在控制中。通过我们的分析，由于国民政府的强大遏制政策，似乎在中国的传播饱和。最近观察到，在新加坡，较高的增长率表明了新的强大扩散的开始。相反，对于韩国和意大利，有关新感染的下一个数据对于了解较低或更高的受感染者的饱和度至关重要。
To evaluate the effectiveness of the containment on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019, we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in a selected number of different Countries, by considering well-known macroscopic growth laws, the Gompertz law, and the logistic law. We also propose here a generalization of Gompertz law. Our data analysis permits an evaluation of the maximum number of infected individuals. The daily data must be compared with the obtained fits, to verify if the spreading is under control. From our analysis it appears that the spreading reached saturation in China, due to the strong containment policy of the national government. In Singapore a large growth rate, recently observed, suggests the start of a new strong spreading. For South Korea and Italy, instead, the next data on new infections will be crucial to understand if the saturation will be reached for lower or higher numbers of infected individuals.
