论文标题
动态的贝弗里奇曲线会计
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发了经验的贝弗里奇曲线的动态分解，即以失业为条件的空缺水平。使用标准模型，我们表明三个因素可以改变贝弗里奇曲线：降低形式的匹配效率，工作分离率的变化和稳固状态的动力学。我们发现，大萧条期间和之后贝弗里奇曲线的变化是由于所有三个因素造成的，每个因素分别造成了巨大的影响。将2010年以前的周期与2010年后的期间进行比较，匹配效率的下降和稳态的状态动力学都将曲线向上推动，而分离率的变化将曲线向下推动。净效应是鉴于失业率的空缺的向上变化。在以前的衰退中，匹配效率的变化相对不重要，而动力学和分离率更大。因此，大衰退的异常特征是匹配效率的恶化，而分离和动态在大多数低迷中都起着重要的，部分抵消了作用。后两个边距的重要性与许多文献形成了鲜明的对比，这些文献从一个或两个文献中抽象出来。我们表明，这些因素会影响经验贝弗里奇曲线的斜率，这是估计失业率自然率的最近福利分析中的重要数量。
We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics both pushed the curve upward, while the changes in the separation rate pushed the curve downward. The net effect was the observed upward shift in vacancies given unemployment. In previous recessions changes in matching efficiency were relatively unimportant, while dynamics and the separation rate had more impact. Thus, the unusual feature of the Great Recession was the deterioration in matching efficiency, while separations and dynamics have played significant, partially offsetting roles in most downturns. The importance of these latter two margins contrasts with much of the literature, which abstracts from one or both of them. We show that these factors affect the slope of the empirical Beveridge curve, an important quantity in recent welfare analyses estimating the natural rate of unemployment.
