论文标题
无证移民的快照模型
Snapshot Models of Undocumented Immigration
论文作者
论文摘要
墨西哥移民项目(MMP)是一项研究,其中包括墨西哥返回墨西哥后墨西哥移民的样本。特别令人感兴趣的是,采样的移民在美国的离职和返回日期,以及该移民家庭进行的此类旅程的总数,用于这些数据,可以构建数据驱动的无证件移民模型。但是,此类数据受到极端的身体偏见的影响,要包括在此样本中,在调查时,移民必须返回墨西哥,不包括仍在美国的那些无证移民。在我们的分析中,我们通过共同建模行程的时间和持续时间来解释这种偏见,以产生在这种“快照”样本中观察数据的可能性。我们的分析表征了无证件的迁移流,包括单次访问移民,反复访客和循环迁移的“退休”。从1987年开始,我们将模型应用于30份年度随机快照调查,对返回的无证件墨西哥移民,这些墨西哥移民对1980 - 2016年的墨西哥移民无证移民。与基于这些相同数据的已发布的估计相反,我们的结果表明,根据忽略物理快照偏差的分析,移民在美国的估计仍然长得多。根据人口数量的规模,我们根据基于美国的普查链接调查的无证移民总数产生的无证件移民总数,并且与Fazel-Zarandi,Feinstein和Kaplan报道的估计值一致,并且与广义上一致。
The Mexican Migration Project (MMP) is a study that includes samples of undocumented Mexican immigrants to the United States after their return to Mexico. Of particular interest are the departure and return dates of a sampled migrant's most recent sojourn in the United States, and the total number of such journeys undertaken by that migrant household, for these data enable the construction of data-driven undocumented immigration models. However, such data are subject to an extreme physical bias, for to be included in such a sample, a migrant must have returned to Mexico by the time of the survey, excluding those undocumented immigrants still in the US. In our analysis, we account for this bias by jointly modeling trip timing and duration to produce the likelihood of observing the data in such a "snapshot" sample. Our analysis characterizes undocumented migration flows including single visit migrants, repeat visitors, and "retirement" from circular migration. Starting with 1987, we apply our models to 30 annual random snapshot surveys of returned undocumented Mexican migrants accounting for undocumented Mexican migration from 1980-2016. Contrary to published estimates based on these same data, our results imply migrants remain in the US much longer than previously estimated based on analysis that ignored the physical snapshot bias. Scaling to population quantities, we produce lower bounds on the total number of undocumented immigrants that are much larger than conventional estimates based on US-based census-linked surveys, and broadly consistent with the estimates reported by Fazel-Zarandi, Feinstein and Kaplan (2018).