论文标题
时间延迟动态模型，用于2019-NCOV爆发和参数标识
A Time Delay Dynamical Model for Outbreak of 2019-nCoV and the Parameter Identification
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了一个新型的动态系统，并随时间延迟，以描述中国2019-NCOV的爆发。这种流行病的一个典型特征是它可以在潜在时期扩散，因此通过微分方程中的时间延迟过程来描述。分类人群的累积数量被用作变量，这与官方数据一致并促进参数识别。提供了预测2019-NCOV和参数识别的数值方法，数值结果表明，新型动态系统可以很好地预测迄今为止的爆发趋势。根据数值模拟，我们建议政府应以高隔离率对个人的传播进行大力控制。
In this paper, we propose a novel dynamical system with time delay to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. One typical feature of this epidemic is that it can spread in latent period, which is therefore described by the time delay process in the differential equations. The accumulated numbers of classified populations are employed as variables, which is consistent with the official data and facilitates the parameter identification. The numerical methods for the prediction of outbreak of 2019-nCoV and parameter identification are provided, and the numerical results show that the novel dynamic system can well predict the outbreak trend so far. Based on the numerical simulations, we suggest that the transmission of individuals should be greatly controlled with high isolation rate by the government.
