论文标题
差异后现象的几何条件和与辛普森悖论的连接
Geometric Conditions for the Discrepant Posterior Phenomenon and Connections to Simpson's Paradox
论文作者
论文摘要
差异后现象(DPP)是一种反直觉现象,在多元参数的贝叶斯分析中经常发生。它指的是一种现象,即基于后部的参数估计值比基于先前或可能性的可能性更为极端。推论性主张表现出了DPP的共同直觉,即后验是先前的妥协,并且这种现象在行为良好的贝叶斯模型中可能无处不在。在本文中,我们重新审视了这种现象,并以点估计为例,得出了DPP在具有指数二次可能性和共轭多元高斯先验的贝叶斯模型中发生的条件。指数二次可能性模型的家族包括高斯模型和具有局部渐近态性能的模型。我们提供了对该现象的直观几何解释,并表明存在边缘方向的非平凡空间,以便发生DPP。我们将现象与辛普森的悖论联系起来,并发现与边缘化相关的深度连接。当存在困难的几何形状时,我们还与贝叶斯计算算法建立了连接。我们的发现表明,DPP比以前的理解和预期更为普遍。理论结果与数值插图相辅相成。这项研究中涵盖的方案对参数化,灵敏度分析以及贝叶斯建模的先前选择具有影响。
The discrepant posterior phenomenon (DPP) is a counter-intuitive phenomenon that can frequently occur in a Bayesian analysis of multivariate parameters. It refers to the phenomenon that a parameter estimate based on a posterior is more extreme than both of those inferred based on either the prior or the likelihood alone. Inferential claims that exhibit DPP defy the common intuition that the posterior is a prior-data compromise, and the phenomenon can be surprisingly ubiquitous in well-behaved Bayesian models. In this paper we revisit this phenomenon and, using point estimation as an example, derive conditions under which the DPP occurs in Bayesian models with exponential quadratic likelihoods and conjugate multivariate Gaussian priors. The family of exponential quadratic likelihood models includes Gaussian models and those models with local asymptotic normality property. We provide an intuitive geometric interpretation of the phenomenon and show that there exists a nontrivial space of marginal directions such that the DPP occurs. We further relate the phenomenon to the Simpson's paradox and discover their deep-rooted connection that is associated with marginalization. We also draw connections with Bayesian computational algorithms when difficult geometry exists. Our discovery demonstrates that DPP is more prevalent than previously understood and anticipated. Theoretical results are complemented by numerical illustrations. Scenarios covered in this study have implications for parameterization, sensitivity analysis, and prior choice for Bayesian modeling.