论文标题

期望出乎意料:制定自主系统设计原则,以对不预测的事件和条件做出反应

Expecting the Unexpected: Developing Autonomous-System Design Principles for Reacting to Unpredicted Events and Conditions

论文作者

Marron, Assaf, Limonad, Lior, Pollack, Sarah, Harel, David

论文摘要

在开发自主系统时,工程师和其他利益相关者竭尽全力为所有可预见的事件和条件做好准备。但是,这些系统仍然势必会遇到在设计时间未考虑的事件和条件。由于安全,成本或道德等原因,通常高度希望在第一次相遇时正确处理这些新情况。在本文中,我们首先证明我们的立场是合理的,即始终存在不可预测的事件和条件,其中包括:现实世界中的新发明;全球系统部署和用途的多样性;而且,在设计时间可能会忽略的多个看似不可能的事件的不可忽略的概率不仅会发生,而且会一起发生。然后,我们认为,尽管有一种不可预测的性能,但确实可以处理这些事件和条件。因此,我们提供并举例说明了设计原则,这些原则可以提前应用,可以使系统能够在未来的情况下处理。最后,我们讨论了这项工作和对意外的更广泛的理论研究,这可能有助于建立可信赖的下一代自治系统的工程原则的基础。

When developing autonomous systems, engineers and other stakeholders make great effort to prepare the system for all foreseeable events and conditions. However, these systems are still bound to encounter events and conditions that were not considered at design time. For reasons like safety, cost, or ethics, it is often highly desired that these new situations be handled correctly upon first encounter. In this paper we first justify our position that there will always exist unpredicted events and conditions, driven among others by: new inventions in the real world; the diversity of world-wide system deployments and uses; and, the non-negligible probability that multiple seemingly unlikely events, which may be neglected at design time, will not only occur, but occur together. We then argue that despite this unpredictability property, handling these events and conditions is indeed possible. Hence, we offer and exemplify design principles that when applied in advance, can enable systems to deal, in the future, with unpredicted circumstances. We conclude with a discussion of how this work and a broader theoretical study of the unexpected can contribute toward a foundation of engineering principles for developing trustworthy next-generation autonomous systems.

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